For someone running the last 100 meters of a 42 Km marathon, one sec can seem to be quite a time. On the other hand, to change a simple habit in your life, a decade may seem quite small. Long Term, therefore, is a relative term in life. But it is not so in equity investments. Whether it is mutual funds or stocks, we can define Long Term quite precisely, clearly and objectively - with logical data points.Let us see how.'Being Dead' as an Investment StrategyFidelity Investments recently conducted a study in the US to find out what kind of investments provided the best returns. The results were startling for anyone who feels is a smart investor. The study revealed that the highest returns were from investors who had completely forgotten about their investment for years, or even decades. A good proportion of these investors who were enjoying amazing returns, had actually died a long time ago. The study, therefore, concluded that the most profitable strategy may be to do exactly what a dead person would do - which is nothing.Why should we define 'Long Term'?A long-term investment is often associated with lesserrisk. We just understood from the above study that the longer the term, the lesser the risk - since volatility is averaged out over a period of time.To augment our statement, just have a look at the last 5 year returns of BSE Sensex:9% , 42% , -9% , 16% & 10%The overall annual returns stand at 13%Now, 13% is a fabulous annual return on your investment - but the variability (volatility) is high. During any short period, you could face poor returns - or even losses (as in Year 3). These poor returns are (over)compensated by a great occasional phase (as in Year 2). As you increase the term, the risk will keep reducing. But how long should we keep increasing the Term of investment? For sure, we do not want to die just trying to get good returns. We want to get the returns and use them too - in this lifespan. Isn't the purpose of an investment to get the returns and use the money as well as the returns arising from it? What use is the money if it just keeps growing and you die of old age? The end purpose of money and investments was always to spend it optimally, so as to facilitate happiness in our life.Therefore, to strike a balance, we must define a Long Term investment tenure where we have a fairly reduced risk and we can also use the investment and the returns for the purpose it was intended to. Thus, we should be able to precisely answer the question, "How long is long-term in Equity?"How does our Law define 'Long Term'?Tax Laws are often quite strange, to say the least. Indian IT Act defines Long Term on equity investments after a period of 1 year (12 months). So, does that mean that any equity investment done for more than a year is a truly long-term and therefore, relatively quite safe?Not really!Ironically, on the other hand, any investment done in debt based funds are considered as long-term from a taxation perspective only if you stay invested for at least 3 years. So, are we saying that debt investments are riskier as compared to equity investments - and therefore need a longer duration to average out the risk? It is actually the reverse. Debt based investments are less volatile and therefore less risky as compared to Equity investments.So, we cannot go by the definition of tax laws to define the right tenure of any Long-Term Investments.Defining 'Long Term' logicallyIf you analyze the data for a typical mutual fund with a multi-decade history over all the possible 1 year periods, you will find that:a) Maximum returns are 160% (best 1-year return ever)b) Minimum returns are -57% (worst 1-year return ever)If you analyze the data for a typical fund with a multi-decade history over all the possible 2 year periods, you will find that:a) Maximum returns are 82% (Annualised best return ever - over 2 years period)b) Minimum returns are -34% (Annualised worst return ever - over 2 years period)If you analyze the data for a typical fund with a multi-decade history over all the possible 3 year periods, you will find that:a) Maximum returns are 63% (Annualised best return ever - over 3 years period)b) Minimum returns are -18% (Annualised worst return ever - over 3 years period)If you analyze the data for a typical fund with a multi-decade history over all the possible 4 year periods, you will find that:a) Maximum returns are 59% (Annualised best return ever - over 4 years period)b) Minimum returns are -8% (Annualised worst return ever - over 4 years period)If you analyze the data for a typical fund with a multi-decade history over all the possible 5 year periods, you will find that:a) Maximum returns are 54% (Annualised best return ever - over 5 years period)b) Minimum returns are 4% (Annualised worst return ever - over 5 years period)This means that the minimum annualized returns you could have made annually if you would have invested in the worst possible fund would have been 4%. Do not go by the dwarf-ness of 4% CAGR. Try and understand the significance of this statement. Here is the crux. There was no feasible way that you could have made any loss in equity market if you would have stayed invested for 5 years - since your returns were going to be between 4% and 54%.Let us just go one step ahead.If you analyze the data for a typical fund with a multi-decade history over all the possible 10 year periods, you will find that:a) Maximum returns are 30% (Annualised best return ever - over 10 years period)b) Minimum returns are 13% (Annualised worst return ever - over 10 years period)Wow !! A worst-case annual returns of 13% !!What else you want equity investments to deliver to you? Of course, that is if you stay invested for 10 years.The above statistics clearly puts the minimum term of investment to be 5 years and the optimum term of investment in equity to be somewhere between 5 and 10 years i.e. 7 years and above. 7+ years is an investment term wherein you get good enough returns with significantly lesser risk.Therefore, in equity investments - long term is not a vague term. It is 7 years+ investment horizon - also validated by 7-year equity cycles.CheersManoj AroraOfficial Website | My Mission
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Great Car Negotiation Tips You Need to KnowApproximately5 million cars are sold in the United States annually. Buying a car can be a very complicated process, especially if this is your first time. Before going out to buy a vehicle, you need to establish a firm budget. The best way to figure out how much you can afford to spend is by getting pre-approved for a car loan.With this information, you can start the process of narrowing down the selection of vehicles at your disposal. Rushing through the car buying process will result in a lot of money being wasted. One of the main concerns you should have when buying a car is getting a good price. Here are some of the things you need to consider when trying to negotiate the price of a vehicle you want.Get Details About the Car You WantHaving an idea of the car you want before going out to shop can help you save time and a lot of money. One of the first things you will learn in negotiations training classes is that knowledge is power. This is why you need to find out everything you can about an automobile before trying to buy it. Figuring out what features this vehicle comes stock with and what the going price for it is can be beneficial.Knowing what other car dealerships are selling a vehicle for can help you negotiate a better price. If a dealership has priced the car you have too high, you need to point to the other prices you have found online. In most cases, a dealership will have no problem lowering the price of a car on their lot to avoid losing a sale. The time you spend researching cars online will pay off when you are able to get a great price.Don’t Focus on Just One DealershipNot only will you need to find out more about the car you want to buy, you will also need to research the dealerships in your area. Ideally, you want to choose a dealership with a great reputation and exceptional prices. Going to visit a few of the dealerships in your area is essential when trying to figure out which one is the right fit.During these visits, you can get a feel for how willing a dealership is to negotiate with you. If it feels like a dealership is hesitant to reduce prices, you need to keep looking. Committing to the first dealership you find will result in you paying too much for a car. This is why you need to avoid rushing through this important research process.Dig Deeper into the Deal Being OfferedThe biggest mistake most people make when buying a car is focusing solely on the monthly payment. While this is important, it also a short-sided way to look at this process. Before you sign off on a deal for a car, you need to check a variety of factors. Mainly, you need to see how high the interest rate is on the loan.You also need to focus on seeing what is being offered by the dealership as a perk for buying from them. Many dealerships will throw in free car detailing and oil changes to entice people to buy from them. If there is something in the deal you simply don’t like, speak up and let the dealership know. They will probably have no problem changing certain terms to meet your needs better.Finding a dealership that is known for providing excellent customer service is crucial. By doing this, you can help to ensure you have a great car buying experience. When visiting a car lot for the first time, you need to test drive a variety of cars. Doing this can help you hone in on the type of vehicle you want.Take Your TimeFinding a great deal on a car is a time-consuming process. This is why you need to avoid getting impatient and making mistakes.